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Good Crops Still on the Way

27 Jul 07

USDA reports that current crop conditions still point toward large 2007 corn, soybean, and cotton crops. Encroaching drought conditions, however, could reduce crop potential in some areas.

As USDA's drought monitor indicates, drought is encroaching on the Corn Belt where the majority of corn and soybean are grown. However, much of the corn is already mature, reducing the impact of dry conditions late in the season. Crop conditions as of July 22 still indicate a corn crop of 12.9 billion bushels is on its way.

Crop conditions continued to indicate that U.S. soybean yields will be above trend with a yield estimate of 42.2 bushels per acre and a total crop of 2.7 billion bushels. The soybean crop, however, is further away from maturity and still needs rainfall.

Cotton crop conditions continue to improve and the 2007 crop is now estimated at 17.2 million bales. Improvement in crop conditions in Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Tennessee has driven much of the increase in production estimates.

But some areas are clearly showing stress, particularly in the southeastern United States and the eastern edges of the Corn Belt. Ohio, North Carolina, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida are showing clear signs of stress. Consider the difference in southeast soybean yields and corn yields as a percentage of trend. Corn is estimated at 91% of trend, but soybeans are estimated at only 76% of trend in Alabama, reflecting worsening drought conditions. If the drought continues to worsen and spread, there is still potential for significant damage to the soybean crop.

Estimated Crop Yields Based On Reported Conditions

 

For Week Ending 7/22/2007

        

 

Corn

 

Soybeans

 

Cotton

 

Crop Condition Yield Estimate*

Trend Yield

Percent of Trend

 

Crop Condition Yield Estimate*

Trend Yield

Percent of Trend

 

Crop Condition Yield Estimate*

Trend Yield

Percent of Trend

 

Bu/Acre

  

Bu/Acre

  

Lbs/Acre

 

AL

102.9

113

91%

 

23.5

31

76%

 

617

683

90%

AZ

196.3

190

103%

  

0

  

1328

1427

93%

AR

140.9

148

95%

 

39.0

38

103%

 

1014

1065

95%

CA

171.7

170

101%

     

1379

1376

100%

CO

145.6

145

100%

        

DE

141.6

137

103%

 

35.0

33

108%

    

FL

91.5

93

99%

 

30.6

32

94%

 

558

634

88%

GA

123.0

132

93%

 

21.6

29

75%

 

731

749

98%

ID

165.7

170

97%

        

IA

168.2

180

93%

 

49.4

48

103%

    

IL

179.5

165

109%

 

51.1

46

111%

    

IN

152.2

157

97%

 

47.5

47

100%

    

KS

148.7

126

118%

 

32.2

32

101%

 

589

597

99%

KY

134.6

143

94%

 

41.5

44

95%

    

LA

134.5

142

95%

 

38.0

35

107%

 

1053

911

115%

MD

115.4

132

87%

 

36.5

35

104%

    

MI

120.6

141

86%

 

34.9

38

92%

    

MN

153.9

172

89%

 

39.2

41

96%

    

MS

81.7

138

59%

 

36.4

36

100%

 

1010

923

109%

MO

148.5

130

114%

 

42.7

38

113%

 

937

994

94%

MT

148.4

153

97%

        

NE

162.5

156

104%

 

45.8

48

96%

    

NJ

112.7

115

98%

 

32.6

33

100%

    

NM

182.2

185

98%

     

439

972

45%

NY

118.5

124

96%

 

40.8

51

80%

    

NC

91.4

121

75%

 

21.5

30

71%

 

776

739

105%

ND

119.5

126

95%

 

36.5

32

115%

    

OK

133.2

127

105%

 

24.8

25

101%

 

588

710

83%

OH

113.6

148

76%

 

40.3

43

94%

    

PA

109.5

117

94%

 

37.8

39

96%

    

SC

97.4

104

94%

 

22.7

25

90%

 

667

690

97%

SD

129.2

120

108%

 

37.6

34

112%

    

TN

130.3

135

97%

 

34.4

40

86%

 

807

933

86%

TX

138.2

124

111%

 

27.0

28

98%

 

677

672

101%

UT

153.5

161

96%

        

VA

99.3

120

83%

 

32.5

32

100%

 

851

786

108%

WA

202.0

205

98%

        

WV

118.7

122

97%

        

WI

143.5

145

99%

 

44.1

39

113%

    

WY

132.2

136

97%

        
            

US

151.1

153.4

98%

 

42.2

41.3

102%

 

800

809

99%

*Crop condition estimates generated by Dr. Seth Meyer at the University of Missouri - Columbia. (Based

on original work by Dr. John Kruse and Dr. Darnell Smith.)

     

**Trend yield estimates developed by Global Insight

      

By John Kruse

 
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