by Valerie Mason, WMRC
Macedonia's prime minister, Hari Kostov, has thrown down the gauntlet to the ethnic-Albanian junior coalition member, the DUI, accusing it of blocking economic reforms through self-interest. Kostov, an economist, has been in power for less than six months, but they have been turbulent ones. As an ethnic Vlach, he has been regarded as a bridge-builder between the Macedonian Slav and ethnic-Albanian parties. He has overseen difficult negotiations between the two coalition parties—the Social Democrats (SDSM) and the DUI of former rebel Ali Ahmeti—on the vital but controversial decentralization law that hands more power to local governments and thus increases ethnic-Albanian autonomy in some areas. The law was finally passed in August, only to be challenged by the nationalist opposition in a referendum in early November. When that failed, there was general international relief, since the law is central to Macedonia's European Union ambitions.
Despite the breakthrough on decentralization, the government has been embroiled in other policy debates. Some of these concern the further implementation of the Ohrid Peace Agreement that ended the 2001 ethnic clashes, while others involve economic policy and anti-corruption efforts. Very little, however, has been agreed upon. Kostov charged that there is no will in the coalition for genuine teamwork aimed at crucial goals, as one junior partner has viewed the government as an instrument for promotion of its particular interests, including nepotism.
In submitting his resignation, Kostov accused the DUI of blocking two key elements of economic reform legislation, one on privatization and the other on the budget, because the party made its support conditional on 15 new civil service jobs for ethnic Albanians. For its part, though, the DUI can accuse the SDSM of dragging its feet on earlier commitments, which form part of the all-important Ohrid Agreement, to employ more Albanians in key posts in proportion to the 25% of the population that is ethnic Albanian. The prime minister's resignation may appear to be a crisis, but he is right to face up to this problem now, given the number of reforms that Macedonia needs to pass if it is to be accepted as an EU candidate (having submitted an application in April 2004) and if it is to undertake the restructuring vital to prevent economic collapse.
The proffered resignation now goes to a parliamentary vote at the next session, which starts on November 18. If parliament rejects it, Kostov carries on with—he hopes—a stronger mandate for economic reform. If parliament accepts it, President Branko Crvenkovski must select a new prime minister within 10 days. The new premier then puts forward a government, together with its agenda, and parliament votes on it within 20 days.
Kostov's fate now depends on whether the DUI decides to vote for him or against him. The party will hardly respond well to the accusations that Kostov has leveled against it publicly, if not by name, and relations will hardly be peaceable. In addition, the DUI can also lay some justified accusations at the SDSM's door regarding insufficient implementation of Ohrid-related laws, especially the law on proportional representation of Albanians in key state posts. The EU will be keeping a close watch on this and may well lambaste the government over it in its next progress report.
The DUI is likely to vote for Kostov at the end of the day. It would be highly unlikely to relinquish its position of power in government, which would be the alternative. There is the third possibility that the DUI could withdraw from government and enter into a parliamentary support arrangement with the SDSM, from which it could hold the latter to account over ethnic-Albanian rights. But Kostov knows that scenario is unlikely, which is why he has taken his current gamble.
