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Bureau of Economic Analysis September 2008 Personal Income Data Release and Global Insight's Estimates
19 Sep 08
BEA has released its second-quarter 2008 personal income estimates, showing a significant impact from the economic stimulus package. BEA has also included their revised estimates for previous quarters going back to 2005. Interestingly, BEA's revised estimates more closely match Global Insight's regional forecast.
According to the BEA release of September 18, 2008, personal income in the United States grew 1.8% in the second quarter of 2008. This growth is higher than for a single quarter in the past four quarters and is more than double the BEA's revised estimate for the first quarter, at 0.8%. According to the BEA report, about 0.9 percentage point of second-quarter 2008 growth is due to the cash rebates taxpayers received from the federal Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. This highlights the significance of the economic stimulus package and implies that without the package second-quarter growth would have been almost same as the first quarter of 2008. In the BEA data report, all states except New Jersey, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Wyoming registered an increase in personal income growth rates in the second quarter. No state has actually recorded negative growth in personal income in the second quarter, compared to the first quarter, when four states—Arkansas, Louisiana, Idaho, and Nevada—are reported by BEA to have losses in personal income. Sum of States Personal Income Growth
(Quarterly % change) | | | GII Forecast | BEA Release | | | Winter | Summer | 1st Quarter | 2nd Quarter | 2008Q1 | 0.98 | ******* | 1.14 | 0.79 | 2008Q2 | 1.61 | 1.83 | ******* | 1.79 |
Note: Growth is calculated for seasonally adjusted annualized data. In this release, BEA has revised its personal income estimate going back to 2005. It is interesting to note that BEA's revised estimate for first-quarter 2007 personal income growth is much closer to the GII winter forecast. Their second-quarter sum of states' growth in personal income is also very close to the GII summer forecast for the second quarter. This comparison is based on quarterly growth calculated as a percent change in the seasonally adjusted annualized values for a quarter. A more comprehensive regional picture is reported in the following table. We have provided a comparison of the personal income trends from BEA's earlier release (labeled "Old") with the new release. The growth in personal income is revised downward for most states in 2005 and 2007, while it is revised upward in 2006. It seems prosperity generated by a good economy in the second half of 2006 was slightly underestimated, which is now corrected. In the table, growth rates for 2005, 2006, and 2007 are calculated using percent change from the previous year's personal income levels; however, the growth rates for the first and second quarters of 2008 are calculated as percent changes in the seasonally adjusted annualized levels from a year-earlier levels. | | | Annual Growth Rates of Personal Income | | | | (% change from a year earlier) | States | BEA Release | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008Q1 | 2008Q2 | ALASKA | Old | 8.2 | 6.44 | 7.11 | 4.85 | 5.03 | | | New | 7.53 | 7.47 | 5.28 | 4.37 | 5.08 | ALABAMA | Old | 5.36 | 6.59 | 5.83 | 4.68 | 5.87 | | | New | 5.91 | 5.91 | 5.87 | 4.35 | 6.1 | ARKANSAS | Old | 5.82 | 6.9 | 7.43 | 5.31 | 5.48 | | | New | 5.88 | 6.64 | 6.89 | 4.89 | 6.34 | ARIZONA | Old | 9.66 | 8.87 | 6 | 3.8 | 4.99 | | | New | 10.7 | 9.27 | 4.54 | 3.5 | 4.62 | CALIFORNIA | Old | 6.5 | 6.54 | 5.96 | 5.02 | 5.37 | | | New | 6.07 | 7.63 | 5.16 | 3.95 | 4.29 | COLORADO | Old | 7.33 | 7.11 | 6.51 | 6.54 | 7.05 | | | New | 7.1 | 7.33 | 5.95 | 5.96 | 5.89 | CONNECTICUT | Old | 4.9 | 6.16 | 6.79 | 3.77 | 5.1 | | | New | 4.86 | 7.68 | 7.03 | 3.27 | 3.76 | WASHINGTON, DC | Old | 8.37 | 6.83 | 5.98 | 5.38 | 6.43 | | | New | 9.15 | 6.34 | 6.56 | 5.33 | 5.92 | DELAWARE | Old | 6.27 | 7.05 | 4.35 | 2.98 | 3.16 | | | New | 5.12 | 7.64 | 4.38 | 3.44 | 4.36 | FLORIDA | Old | 9.1 | 7.44 | 5.51 | 3.97 | 4.95 | | | New | 8.61 | 8.81 | 4.61 | 3.2 | 4.28 | GEORGIA | Old | 7.27 | 5.54 | 6.07 | 3.77 | 3.83 | | | New | 7.31 | 5.87 | 6 | 3.49 | 5.3 | HAWAII | Old | 7.93 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 5.35 | 5.66 | | | New | 7.52 | 7.31 | 5.9 | 4.91 | 5.71 | IOWA | Old | 3.06 | 5.37 | 6.94 | 6 | 4.23 | | | New | 3.07 | 4.23 | 7.02 | 5.72 | 5.75 | IDAHO | Old | 5.98 | 8.54 | 7.21 | 4.28 | 4.9 | | | New | 7.28 | 8.66 | 7.09 | 3.37 | 3.98 | ILLINOIS | Old | 4.26 | 5.74 | 5.87 | 4.92 | 5.65 | | | New | 4.04 | 5.9 | 7.23 | 4.34 | 5.23 | INDIANA | Old | 3.83 | 5.25 | 4.94 | 4.06 | 5.01 | | | New | 2.65 | 5.46 | 4.35 | 3.65 | 4.72 | KANSAS | Old | 5.95 | 6.94 | 6.74 | 5.32 | 5.64 | | | New | 4.09 | 8.09 | 6.34 | 5.04 | 5.01 | KENTUCKY | Old | 5.86 | 5.57 | 5.7 | 4.39 | 4.81 | | | New | 4.53 | 6.13 | 5.25 | 3.82 | 5.01 | LOUISIANA | Old | -8.5 | 20.62 | 10.48 | 7.04 | 3.81 | | | New | -9.43 | 25.85 | 10.12 | 7.06 | 3.79 | MASSACHUSETTS | Old | 5.16 | 6.25 | 6.6 | 4.83 | 6.35 | | | New | 4.54 | 7.03 | 6.25 | 4.77 | 5.49 | MARYLAND | Old | 5.47 | 5.66 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 4.74 | | | New | 5.82 | 5.84 | 6.3 | 4.02 | 4.31 | MAINE | Old | 2.86 | 3.9 | 5.07 | 3.92 | 5.18 | | | New | 2.26 | 5.03 | 5.48 | 3.88 | 4.69 | MICHIGAN | Old | 3.68 | 3.29 | 3.09 | 2.52 | 4.21 | | | New | 2.06 | 2.26 | 3.98 | 1.85 | 3.45 | MINNESOTA | Old | 3.64 | 5.13 | 6.48 | 5.32 | 4.01 | | | New | 3.52 | 5.23 | 6.34 | 5.29 | 4.77 | MISSOURI | Old | 4.59 | 5.24 | 5.77 | 5.5 | 6.17 | | | New | 3.8 | 5.02 | 5.38 | 4.33 | 5.5 | MISSISSIPPI | Old | 6.07 | 5.98 | 7.38 | 5.13 | 4.24 | | | New | 5.15 | 7.04 | 6.14 | 5.41 | 5.39 | MONTANA | Old | 5.79 | 6.75 | 6.45 | 5.13 | 5.39 | | | New | 6.62 | 6.66 | 8.16 | 5.09 | 6.2 | NORTH CAROLINA | Old | 6.23 | 7.3 | 6.57 | 4.73 | 5.91 | | | New | 7.02 | 6.3 | 6.85 | 3.75 | 5.46 | NORTH DAKOTA | Old | 8.7 | 3.05 | 7.4 | 13.88 | 12.16 | | | New | 7.56 | 2.36 | 12.04 | 11.05 | 13.62 | NEBRASKA | Old | 4.07 | 5.32 | 6.74 | 6.62 | 5.88 | | | New | 3.81 | 4.07 | 7.26 | 5.48 | 4.56 | NEW HAMPSHIRE | Old | 3.71 | 6.56 | 4.57 | 3.59 | 4.13 | | | New | 3.14 | 7.05 | 4.66 | 4.07 | 3.71 | NEW JERSEY | Old | 4.32 | 7.37 | 5.47 | 3.61 | 5 | | | New | 4.15 | 7.41 | 5.67 | 4.03 | 4.8 | NEW MEXICO | Old | 8.39 | 7.66 | 7.07 | 5.54 | 6.96 | | | New | 7.15 | 6.53 | 6.02 | 5.82 | 7.46 | NEVADA | Old | 12.42 | 7.73 | 7.43 | 6.33 | 7.09 | | | New | 12.18 | 7.16 | 5.44 | 5.2 | 5.88 | NEW YORK | Old | 6.77 | 7.45 | 7.67 | 4.52 | 7.56 | | | New | 6.58 | 7.33 | 6.39 | 3.99 | 6.27 | OHIO | Old | 3.95 | 4.36 | 4.64 | 2.98 | 3.96 | | | New | 3.01 | 4.23 | 4.67 | 2.51 | 4.16 | OKLAHOMA | Old | 6.43 | 8.85 | 6.89 | 6.75 | 7.57 | | | New | 6.72 | 9.47 | 8.06 | 6.27 | 7.23 | OREGON | Old | |
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