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U.S. Retail Sales Dip Will Affect States

22 May 07

The dip in retail sales this year will affect state tax revenues differently..

Preliminary retail sales figures for the United States—announced Friday, May 11, 2007—were lower than many expected. April recorded a 0.2% decline versus March. The slow sales figure are being blamed on cold weather in the Northeast that slowed sales of clothing, and high gas prices crowding out some of retail spending. Automotive sales were also down versus last month, contributing to the sharp decline. The slowdown in the housing sector has hurt retail sales, with sales of building supplies and goods for new houses slumping. Retail Sales are down for the month, but still 3.2% greater than they were in April of last year.

The fiscal strength of a state is largely determined by the tax revenue that it brings in. Lower-than-expected retail sales, as seen in April; mean that a state might have projected higher tax revenues than what they will collect. States get different proportions of their tax revenue from sales taxes. States that get a higher-than-average amount of revenue from sales taxes might see revenue growth fall in the future. The following table shows the percentage of total tax revenues that come from sales and gross receipts taxes.

Proportion of Tax Revenues from Sales Tax and Gross Receipts Tax by State

 

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

TN

61%

62%

63%

61%

62%

WA

62%

60%

61%

62%

61%

SD

51%

55%

54%

56%

58%

FL

58%

56%

56%

54%

56%

TX

51%

50%

52%

50%

51%

MS

46%

46%

49%

50%

50%

NV

48%

43%

43%

50%

50%

HI

48%

50%

49%

48%

49%

AZ

49%

49%

50%

46%

45%

AR

38%

39%

38%

42%

43%

IN

37%

40%

40%

40%

40%

MI

34%

35%

36%

35%

39%

SC

41%

43%

39%

40%

39%

WY

39%

35%

31%

38%

38%

ID

32%

38%

41%

37%

36%

NE

37%

42%

41%

37%

36%

GA

35%

35%

34%

34%

35%

LA

34%

31%

32%

32%

35%

KS

38%

37%

37%

36%

34%

UT

38%

38%

37%

35%

34%

NM

39%

40%

35%

31%

32%

RI

34%

34%

32%

33%

32%

CA

32%

31%

32%

32%

31%

MO

33%

33%

32%

32%

31%

OH

32%

33%

34%

34%

31%

KY

32%

31%

30%

30%

30%

ME

32%

32%

32%

30%

30%

WI

31%

30%

31%

30%

30%

IL

29%

28%

29%

28%

29%

NJ

32%

30%

29%

27%

29%

PA

33%

32%

31%

30%

29%

DC

21%

23%

24%

26%

27%

IA

34%

32%

31%

27%

27%

ND

30%

32%

29%

28%

27%

AL

27%

27%

27%

27%

26%

MN

28%

26%

28%

26%

26%

CO

27%

28%

27%

26%

25%

CT

33%

32%

31%

28%

25%

NC

23%

24%

25%

25%

24%

OK

26%

26%

26%

24%

24%

WV

27%

27%

28%

26%

24%

MD

25%

22%

26%

23%

23%

MA

25%

23%

22%

22%

21%

NY

22%

23%

22%

21%

19%

VA

22%

21%

22%

20%

19%

VT

14%

16%

17%

20%

19%

AK

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

DE

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

MT

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

NH

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

OR

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

Delaware, Montana, New Hampshire, Alaska, and Oregon have no sales taxes and are not affected by a decline in retail sales. States that are heavily dependent on sales taxes for revenue, like Tennessee, South Dakota, Washington, and Florida, will see greater fiscal stress from sales tax weakness.

 
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