| WMRC Perspective | | | | Significance | In a surprise twist, the pre-election rhetoric of conservative leader Andruis Kubilius appears to have paid off, as the right-wing parties staged an impressive comeback, leaving the governing coalition in third place. | | Implications | The extent of the victory of the Homeland Union and Liberal and Centre Union bodes well for business; both want to attract more foreign investment and lower income tax. They also want to keep the Labour Party away from power structures and so may seek to govern with the outgoing coalition, which has an established reputation for stability. | | Outlook | The president has two weeks to nominate a prime minister, which may prove tricky as three strong blocs have emerged as a result of the ballot. However, the outgoing coalition may pair with the conservatives to form a relatively stable coalition that will continue a good economic performance but will not be marked by the same stability. | Election Success for United Right Amidst a low turnout, the second round of Lithuania's legislative elections yesterday exposed a sustained decline in support for the governing parties, despite stable administration over the last four years. However, the traditional staunch supporters of the right-wing conservative parties did made the journey to the ballot boxes. As voting began, it appeared that the conservatives would be able to steal some of the support that had been divided between the Social Democrat and New Union governing coalition, Working for Lithuania, and the upstart new Labour Party (LP), led by Russian-born tycoon Viktor Uspaskikh. A populist creation that shot to the top of the polls after its inception in late 2003, the LP embarrassed the government in the June European Parliament elections, and sparked fierce debate over it gaining access to power after this success continued in the 10 October first round of voting. Based on empty promises to raise living standards, wages and pensions, and change the electoral system, there was intense discussion of the remaining parties being able to exclude the LP from power, and avoid the spectre of Uspaskikh being so close to the top government post. | Overall Results of 10 and 24 October 2004
Legislative Elections | | Party | Seats | | Homeland Union -Liberal and Centre Union | 43 (25 and 18, respectively) | | Labour Party | 39 | | Working For Lithuania | 31 | | Liberal Democrats | 11 | | New Democracy | 10 | | Source: Preliminary results from Central Electoral Commission | Of the nearly 2.5m registered voters, turnout was poor at just 40%, although the electorate is understandably less moved by the prospect of a ballot after the first round and early presidential and European Parliament elections earlier in the year. President Valdus Adamkus must now choose a candidate for prime minister to begin forming a government. Convention would make this the leader of the most successful party, but since the winning coalition is made up of three parties, this could complicate matters. The largest of the three is the conservative Homeland Union, led by Andruis Kubilius, and his espousal of the 'right-wing values' that he wants to guarantee in any coalition the party forms has raised eyebrows in the past. The Liberal Centre Union, led by Arturas Zuokas, and the conservative Homeland Union managed seven and 11 seats, respectively, in the first round. This was disappointing compared with the 2000 elections, and to counter this, the conservative parties embarked on a much more successful campaign strategy to appeal directly to voters, resulting in their eventual 43-seat victory. Coalition Confusion The most likely coalition remains that of the current governing parties and the conservative parties, since it would provide a working majority, although how the spoils of leadership would be divided will be a tough battle. Although the results have reduced the influence of the governing coalition, Algirdas Brazauskas will still aim to retain his post as prime minister. Although Lithuanian politics are characteristically volatile, Brazauskas's partnership with speaker Arturas Paulauskas has been one of stability, and support has mostly declined from a lack of voter connectivity as the government has concentrated on European Union accession rather than domestic issues, and to battle a stream of corruption cases that reached right up to former president Rolandas Paksas. The LP won 23 seats in the first round, and Working for Lithuania 19. The Labour Party had 48 candidates in the 66 remaining run-off ballots for the 141-seat house, but won fewer of these than expected. Kubilius has ruled out a coalition with the LP, but if the conservatives and liberals fail to agree to a working coalition with Working for Lithuania, the latter could still turn to the LP, although Brazauskas has for now moved away from that prospect as co-operation with the right is on the cards. Uspaskikh wants influence and key government posts, something that Adamkus and Brazauskas are not keen to allow. Outlook and Implications The government was given three weeks to recoup its support, but its campaign chose the wrong trajectory, concentrating on the danger of an LP government rather than the safety of a Social Democratic one. The administration pointed to larger economic issues such as endangering the target date for entry into the single European currency should the LP be left in charge, but this is an issue relevant to very few voters, especially for the rural population. Kubilius, on the other hand, appealed to the voters' hopes and fears, while Homeland Union was the only party prepared to reject outright a coalition with LP; Brazauskas lost credibility for failing to take a concrete stance on the issue. Uspaskikh himself has been extremely quiet over the last few weeks, allowing his party juniors to fight his battles for him, and to let the prime minister and president embroil themselves in debate. He effectively played the game better than they did. The possibility of a rainbow coalition across the political spectrum to keep the LP out of power is stronger from the resurgence in support for the conservative parties, but there would be inherent instability in such a formation if it was only based on that fact, as other left-right coalitions have proved to be in the past. Both the outgoing coalition and the right-wing parties seem keen to please investors, and are keen to portray themselves as centrist. Now intense negotiations will begin on how to divide the key government posts. Although the complexity of the blocs that have emerged will mean a difficult two weeks of negotiations, it will at least ensure a majority government with a strong opposition party. At present, the prospects for the next administration are that it will be less stable than the outgoing and longest post-Communist government was. | |
