State of Emergency Declared in Thai Capital Bangkok

Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej has today imposed a state of emergency in Bangkok, following clashes between the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protesters and a group of government supporters of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship of Thailand (UDDT). The clashes occurred when several hundred UDDT members attempted to break through a police cordon at the intersection near the former army academy in the capital. PAD co-leader Somsak Kosaisuk at that stage called for additional reinforcements from PAD protesters, who remained camped out at nearby Government House. The two groups then clashed, using makeshift weapons such as bottles, rocks and sticks. Several gunshots were also heard, but it is not clear which side had fired. The ensuing clashes left one person dead and 44 people injured, several of whom are suffering from serious gunshot wounds. The death of one of the protesters makes this the worst violence in Thailand since a military crackdown in the “Bloody May” of 1992, which left 52 protesters dead.

State of Emergency Imposed to Avoid Slide Into Widespread Civil Strife

Following the violence, PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul took to the stage at the alliance’s main camp telling his supporters that the UDDT, with support from the government, had attacked and wounded members of the PAD (see Thailand: 29 August 2008: Police and Protesters Clash as Siege in Bangkok Enters Fourth Day). Another PAD member accused members of the government of having been amongst the attackers. Sondhi called on the people of Bangkok to come out in protest, and declared that a civil war had begun. Police began to arrive around 2:00 am local time after Sondhi’s announcement to keep the two sides apart, and were reinforced by anti-riot soldiers from the First Army Division later on in the night.

At 7:00 am local time, state radio broadcast the announcement of the declaration of a state of emergency on Bangkok. It was invoked under the Executive Decree for National Administration under an Emergency Situation. This makes it the first use of the controversial law that was passed towards the end of military rule in 2007. The state of emergency is initially set to last until 30 November, but Samak subsequently told journalists during his 9:00 am press conference that he hopes the state of emergency will be lifted within a few days. The state of emergency allows for the deployment of army troops and gives the army the power to break up any gathering of more than five people, and to restrict the movement of people to and from certain locations of strategic interest. There are also provisions that can prevent the media from printing anything that could incite further violence. The responsibility of implementing the state of emergency rests with Army Chief Anupong Paojinda, with the national police chief and Bangkok’s regional commander as his deputies.

Clearly Samak saw himself with little choice but to impose a state of emergency. The nature of the violence was different to previous instances in Thai history, which had seen the military pitted against the civilian population. Samak had been extremely careful not to provoke any clashes in the tense environment of the PAD protests, and had ordered police restraint. The government, however, had little control over the UDDT, whose presence ultimately caused the clashes between differing groups of the civilian population. The clashes are symbolic of the deep divide in Thai society between pro and anti-government factions, and the government absolutely had to intervene to stop any further violence and keep the two sides apart. Allowing the violence to continue could have sparked more widespread civil strife across Bangkok. At this stage, the problems remain very localised to the administrative area of Bangkok. Martial law or curfews have not been imposed.

Military Reiterates Its Commitment to Peaceful Resolution

Anupong gave a press conference shortly after Samak concluded his announcement, and reiterated his commitment to a peaceful resolution and again ruled out the possibility that there would be a new coup. He said soldiers would not use force to evict the PAD from Government House, and troops would not be carrying firearms, just shields and batons, with teargas to be deployed in the worst case scenario. He said a coup would not solve the differences between the PAD and the Samak government, and that this was an issue for parliament to resolve.

A fresh military coup is only a distant possibility, given the very low public support for such a measure, estimated to be at less than 5% of the population. The military is also reluctant to intervene following the disastrous period of tenure after the 2006 coup, which achieved little, did not solve the country’s problems and caused a loss of face for the institution. The King has also remained silent on the current crisis, so there is no indication that he would back the military in another coup attempt. The military’s commitment to not use force to end the protests shows that it does not see itself as the enforcer of the emergency decree, but wants to act as referee or mediator between the government and the PAD.

Unions Pledge Support to PAD and Plan Nationwide Strikes

Some 43 state enterprise labour unions under PAD influence have now pledged their support for the protests in Bangkok. They have agreed to stage strikes and to selectively cut water and electricity supplies, halt Bangkok bus services and delay Thai International Airways flights from tomorrow (3 September). The secretary general of the State Enterprise Labour Relations Confederation, who is also a core PAD leader, said they would cut water and electricity supplies to provincial police offices and other selected targets. Telephone lines to government agencies and homes of cabinet members will be cut. Flights of Thai International will be delayed nationwide, and 80% of Bangkok buses will not run. Protesters today also managed to again block the southern Hat Yai and Surat Thani airports. They currently remain open, but are experiencing delays and cancellations of flights.

If the threats of the unions materialise, the transport network will be brought to a virtual standstill while the provincial government will be unable to function given a lack of utilities and communications. The Ministries for Transport and Energy have pledged to work directly with suppliers to ensure that as many of the services as possible will run despite a possible walkout by staff.

Thai investors have warned that a nationwide strike of state workers could further weaken the Thai Stock Exchange (SET). The SET has already lost 21% of its value this year, losing nearly a further 2% yesterday. It was 2.1% lower by late afternoon today. Overall, 22 out of the 25 sub-indices that make up the Stock Exchange of Thailand index fell, with mining, banking, media and food sectors the worst affected.

Outlook and Implications

Further Political Instability Looms

To compound an already intractable situation, the Election Commission has today recommended the dissolution of the ruling People’s Power Party (PPP). The EC made its judgement to the Office of the Attorney General, which will now deliberate on the case before issuing a final verdict. The possibility of disbandment of the party and the banning of all its political leaders had arisen when one member of the PPP, former house speaker Yongyuth Tiyapairat, was found guilty of vote-buying in the December 2007 election. Under the military-drafted constitution, any party found guilty of fraud can face dissolution. This fate had befallen ousted former PM Thaksin Shinawatra’s Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party, leading to the creation of the PPP in its place. Samak’s attempt to amend the constitution, including this provision, had sparked the PAD protests in May this year.

The ruling of the EC further undermines the confidence in impartiality of the judiciary. In the past few months, negative rulings for the government have led to the removal of three top officials, and an impending corruption case involving former PM Thaksin threatens the suspension of three other ministerial staff (see Thailand: 10 July 2008: Thai Government in Crisis as Key Ministers Ousted). Cases against the now-exiled Thaksin are set to be heard on 17 September and 15 October. The courts also failed to seriously enforce their injunctions against the PAD protesters to leave Government House.

The PPP has already registered a new party to rally their supports in the event that it loses this court battle as well, which given the courts’ recent behaviour, seems highly likely. While this potential party would garner the widespread support from the rural heartlands currently enjoyed by the PPP, it would mean yet another change of leadership. More importantly, it would continue to provoke the anger of the PAD and the other traditional power base in Bangkok. This alliance will seemingly not rest until its demands for a 70% appointed parliament are met.

A gubernatorial election for the Governor of Bangkok is set for 5 October. The EC has already announced that it may be delayed depending on the length of the state of emergency.

Samak’s Future Hangs in the Balance

The standoff between the PAD and the government now enters its second week, making it increasingly difficult for Samak to retain control (see Thailand: 1 September 2008: Thai PM Faces Mounting Calls for Resignation as Stand-Off Enters Seventh Day). He has reiterated his position, saying he refuses to resign or to dissolve parliament. Meanwhile, Sondhi announced this afternoon that he expected the rally to come to an end within the next two days, once the military comes to disperse the crowds. He believed the army would not hurt anyone, but that they would carry out the order to evict them from Government House. It is unclear whether the rallies will indeed simply end once the military enforces the emergency decree. Some protesters appear to be gearing up for a fight, as they roll out barbed wire barriers around their camp. Further violence is therefore certainly a possibility. However, the threat of clashes between groups of civilians has at least been reduced since the UDDT said it had dispersed following the imposition of the state of emergency.

Regardless of the exact outcome of the protests, which remains highly unpredictable, it is clear that there will be political fallout from this. Some observers are expecting Samak to call fresh elections after parliament passes his proposed national budget tomorrow. This would give Samak a new mandate. However, it is far from clear whether Samak will go ahead and do this, and more importantly, whether this would actually end the problem. Firstly, the PPP (or the successor party) would be highly likely to win another election, as the rural areas still overwhelmingly support the party and outnumber the Bangkok-based traditionalist core of the PAD. Moreover, the PAD has already made it clear it will not be satisfied with a simple parliamentary solution. They not only want the resignation of the PM, but also an overhaul of Thailand’s political system. The current political crisis that has gripped the country has now firmly entered its third year, with no tangible resolution in sight.

Find out more about Same-day Analysis