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Election 2009: ANC Eyes Two-Thirds Parliamentary Majority as Voting Begins in South Africa
22 Apr 09
Polling is under way in South Africa's fourth democratic election, with the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party set to maintain its strong grip on power by winning the ballot, which will usher in the controversial Jacob Zuma as the country's new president.
IHS Global Insight Perspective | | Significance | Today's ballot is the fourth democratic election to be held in South Africa since the end of Apartheid rule, with the ANC having won the previous three by handsome margins. | Implications | The former liberation movement is widely tipped to win comfortably the poll for the National Assembly, albeit with a reduced margin, with its winning total set to fall under the crucial two-thirds majority. | Outlook | With an estimated 10% of the 23.1 million registered voters reported to be undecided on their voting intentions, the ANC still believes that it can achieve the crucial threshold that will allow the party to amend the constitution unilaterally, if it so wishes. |
South Africans are voting in what is only the country's fourth national and provincial assembly election today. According to the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), which is responsible for organising and monitoring the event, all but a handful of the 19,726 polling stations have been open for voters to cast their votes since 07:00 local time (05:00 GMT) as scheduled, and will remain so until 21:00. Despite initial fears that turnout for the ballot will be low, large queues have been witnessed outside most polling stations this morning, backing up the IEC's prediction of a turnout of around 80%. Today's ballot sees voters choosing their representatives in both the national and nine provincial assemblies. Some 40 political parties are partaking in today's parallel elections, with 26 participating nationally and 14 provincially. Barring a political earthquake of seismic proportions, the ruling ANC will maintain its dominance of the country's political landscape by winning the ballot for the national assembly and eight of the nine provincial assemblies. The party is, however, unlikely to receive the 69.68% share of votes that saw it win 279 out 400 National Assembly seats at the last election—in 2004—with its share likely to fall below the crucial two-thirds (66.67%) margin that would allow it to amend the constitution unilaterally, if it wishes to do so. The ANC is also likely to lose control of Western Cape Province to the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) party, which is likely to maintain its current position as the ANC's official opposition nationally, without even threatening the ANC's hegemony. This is despite the emergence of the new, ANC breakaway party, the Congress of the People (COPE). Founded by disgruntled former members of the ANC late in 2008 and seen as the first truly non-racial opposition party, the COPE was widely expected to present the ANC with its biggest electoral challenge since it first came to power back in 1994. But, the embryonic party's lack of proper structures and lacklustre campaigning meant the party has failed to live up to its billing, with its failure to articulate its message properly to the majority poor black South Africans likely to see it finish behind the DA in the national ballot. Outlook and Implications Despite its initial billing as the most keenly contested ballot in South Africa's modern history, today's ballot has become something of a non-event, once the ANC's electoral machinery swung into action. As a result most of the debate in the approach to today's ballot has focused on whether the party will secure the two-thirds majority and the prospect of the country being led by such a divisive figure as the ANC's leader Zuma. The 67-year-old former deputy president is expected to be elected as the country's next head of state by the newly elected parliament early in May. But, given his colourful past and questionable character, including his recent escape from a string of graft charges on highly dubious technical grounds, Zuma's imminent ascension to power continues to sit uncomfortably with most South Africans. Despite his numerous detractors, Zuma promises that he will be a president for all South Africans—rich and poor—and will seek to lead the country by consensus. He has also gone out of his way to reassure jittery investors that his election will not see any major divergence from the country's current market-friendly economic policy, which continues to be criticised by those on the left for deepening the unemployment and poverty problems among the country's majority black population. The first sign of Zuma's promise of continuity in economic policy will come when he names his first cabinet team in about two weeks time, with the markets looking to see if Trevor Manuel, the country's much-respected finance minister, remains in situ. Already the longest currently serving chancellor in the world, Manuel has given mixed signals about his future in recent months, but with the country slipping into recession many will see his continued presence in the government as crucial for investor confidence.
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