Election 2009: Violence Rages in Iran over Disputed Presidential Contest Results

A "Stolen" Election?

"I am the winner. I am the winner with the most votes, the precise results will show up later…We will not go back to what it was, not go back to status quo. We will go forward from this point." At 01:00 on Saturday 13 June moderate reformist presidential candidate, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, spoke to Iranian reporters, confident of his election as the tenth president of the Islamic Republic. Mousavi’s camp claimed that he had received official notice from the interior ministry and his own observers in polling stations that he was effectively the winner of the hotly contested election in which he and the incumbent Mahmoud Ahmedinejad had long been the top contenders (see Iran: 12 June 2009: Election 2009: Anticipation Mounts as Polling Begins in Iran and Iran: 3 June 2009: Daunting Challenges Lie in Wait for Victor as Iran Votes). However, almost simultaneously Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB showed that Ahmedinejad in fact had won over 60% of the vote, making him the outright winner. As the tallies from polling stations across the country continued to come in, Ahmedinejad’s re-election appeared to be a fait accompli. However, the final confirmation was given in an announcement by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni when he announced early on Saturday—before the Interior Ministry—that Ahmedinejad had won.

Official election data published by the Interior Ministry showed that Ahmedinejad scored 62.6% of the vote while Mousavi won 34%. The official results also showed that voter turnout was unprecedented, reaching 85%. The two other candidates—reformist cleric Mehdi Karroubi and conservative Mohsen Rezai—gained an insignificant number of votes (300,000 and 680,000 respectively, according to the official results) causing even greater suspicion of election fraud. Mehdi Karroubi, who ran in the 2005 elections and secured some five million votes then, has stood firmly behind the Mousavi camp, publicly denouncing the results and reportedly taking off his clerical robes in a strong act of public protest. Furthermore, the Council of Militant Clerics, which includes former president Mohammed Khatami, has come out in protest against the results. Furthermore, rumours have emerged that political heavyweight and ex-president Hashemi Rafsanjani, who in recent weeks has been involved in a public spat with the incumbent, has headed to the religious capital, Qom, to seek support among the country’s clerical leadership for an annulment of the poll.

"Death to Dictatorship"

In response to the official results, Mousavi supporters, who in recent weeks have been coming out in their hundreds of thousands to support the reformist, poured out onto the streets Tehran and elsewhere to reclaim their "stolen" election (see Iran: 9 June 2009: Election 2009: Fervour Builds in Iran Ahead of Presidential Poll). Over the weekend the streets of Tehran have been the scene of the most violent clashes seen in the country for over a decade, maybe even since the 1979 Revolution which ousted Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Parts of Tehran have been ablaze as tyres, motorcycles, and cars have been set on fire as slogans of "death to dictatorship" have been heard with mounting fervour alongside cries of "Allah o Akbar" (God is Great) as demonstrators have heeded to calls by reformist challengers to use the very slogan of the Islamic Republic to de-legitimise the government. Streets have been stained with the blood of protestors—most of whom have been young women and men—who have clashed heavily with police, security guards, and civilian intelligence officers. Images spreading through opposition websites and circulated throughout Internet sites such as Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube have provided outsiders with an idea of the unfolding events. Over the weekend, reports surfaced that the regime has severely limited Internet availability, limited mobile-phone services, and shut down radio and foreign satellite broadcasts; foreign journalists have been arrested and some have been expelled from the country. Although there have been rumours of several deaths, none have yet been confirmed. According to Agence France-Presse (AFP) today, some 170 individuals accused of instigating protests have been arrested, even more could be under house arrest. Earlier this weekend, reports surfaced that dozens of reformist leaders had been detained, including Mohammad Reza Khatami (brother of former president and reformist heavyweight Mohammad Khatami).

Ahmedinejad Secures His Position

The re-elected president has wasted no time in re-claiming his position. The infamous president has emerged significantly emboldened and arguably radicalised from his landslide victory and by the clearly undisputed backing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who has wholeheartedly endorsed the election results. Speaking to thousands of supporters in Tehran’s Valiasr Square, where many of the violent protests the previous day had taken place, Ahmedinejad yesterday hailed the elections as the most "clean" and fair. Using much of his speech to attack Western liberal democracies, the president further said "we should appreciate the great triumph of the people of Iran against the unified front of all the world arrogance and the psychological war launched by the enemy". Speaking in a tone which shows an undeniable affinity to the psychology not only of the Supreme Leader Khameni but of the father of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeni, Ahmedinejad appears to have signalled clearly that the world can look forward to another four years of belligerent rhetoric and risky foreign-policy strategies.

Outlook and Implications

With a potentially escalating situation at hand the government has done its utmost publicly to undermine the significance of the protests while simultaneously issuing a stark warning that severe consequences will follow if demonstrations continue. Meanwhile, as unrest continues to rage, the situation could get significantly worse prompting IHS Global Insight’s temporary risk changes to Iran’s political and security situation in order to reflect the current uncertainty. The capital and other cities such as Meshed, Isfahan, and Kermanshah, have been subjected to a security lockdown as the authorities move to quickly put out the flame of unrest. Today, the Mousavi camp vowed to hold a national demonstration to protest the results but failed to gain official authorisation from the Interior Ministry to do so. Mousavi has called for his supporters to remain calm but continue peaceful protests, mindful of the vastly explosive situation at hand and the possibility that further clashes could be met with live ammunition, according to the BBC. However, it is unlikely that the opposition will settle, as the ex-premier issued an official request to the 12-member Guardian Council for the annulment of the election results yesterday. Given the endorsement of the incumbent by the powerful Supreme Leader it is highly unlikely that the government will back down; that would be tantamount to admitting electoral fraud and would seriously undermine the legitimacy of the Supreme Leader. Instead it is likely that the government, with the help of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij forces, will continue the security lockdown and put a fierce end to public protests. In addition the elite leadership will probably allow the defeated Mousavi to go through the necessary legal procedures to dispute the results in order to uphold the façade of due procedure.

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