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Election 2009: Fraud Ruled Out in Iran, Ahmedinejad's Victory Confirmed30 Jun 09Iran's top clerical body, the Guardian Council, has ruled out the possibility of fraud in the country's highly disputed presidential election, confirming Mahmoud Ahmedinejad's re-election.
After more than two weeks of serious protests that have seen Iranians take to the streets in their hundreds of thousands, if not millions, Iran’s top clerical and electoral body—the Guardian Council— today ruled out the possibility that the country’s disputed election results had been tampered with (see Iran: 25 June 2009: Iran's Post-Election Upheaval: A Challenge to Legitimacy). The council, which had been given a five-day extension to a 10-day window to investigate the results, has thus formally accepted Mahmoud Ahmedinejad’s re-election by some 63% of the vote—a figure which protesters and the opposition have deemed suspiciously high. Many believed that leading opposition candidate, Mir-Hossein Mousavi—a moderate reformist who only secured 34% of the vote—was the real victor. The decision comes one day after the council said it had begun a recount of 10% of the polls as part of its investigation into allegations of irregularities by Mousavi and fellow reformist opposition candidate, Mehdi Karroubi. A third candidate, conservative former Revolutionary Guards commander Mohsen Rezai, dropped his complaints. According to the Interior Ministry, on 18 June, the three candidates together submitted 646 complaints before Rezai’s retraction. Mousavi and Karroubi have stood firm in their demands that the election be annulled and their determination has fuelled ongoing street protests. The news of the Guardian Council’s decision was followed by a fierce security lockdown in the capital, Tehran, in an attempt to prevent protesters gathering on the streets by dispersing crowds into small and more easily managed groups. According to reports by Agence France-Press (AFP) many Tehranis took to their rooftops, shouting ''Allah u Akbar'' (God is Great), a slogan used to discredit the leadership’s legitimacy. Meanwhile, thousands remain under arrest, including foreign nationals, members of the media, and so-called opposition members. Both the reformist candidates’ allegations have centred on ballot-box stuffing, which could be the cause of why in several provinces turnout exceeded the size of the electorate. There were allegations of inconsistencies in the election monitoring, discrepancies between information reported by the candidates’ own campaign staff at polling stations plus restrictions put in place to prevent their monitoring in other provinces. The opposition also condemned the rapid announcement of election results, the lack of a break-down of provincial results, and that large numbers of ballots were printed without serial numbers. Neither of the candidates sent representatives to oversee the 10% recount which was conducted by officials from the Interior Ministry and district governors. According to Iran’s state-backed Press TV, the Guardian Council had attempted to address some of the complaints issued, including those pointing to the provinces where voter turnout exceeded the electorate. The council’s spokesperson, Abbasali Kadkhodai, said those discrepancies could be explained by the fact that voters are free to vote in any district. It would appear that the Guardian Council meant for this rationale to explain its own admittance on 22 June that the total ballots cast in 50 cities showed that three million votes had been recorded above the number of eligible voters. A further statement by the council’s head, Ayatollah Ahmad Janati, who is one of Ahmedinejad’s key supporters, said—according to AFP—''the objections were not deemed infringements or fraud and were only minor irregularities that occur in each election". International Response Although widely expected, the news of Ahmedinejad’s confirmed re-election was met yesterday with cautious comment from international community. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she did not want to speculate but "Obviously, they have a huge credibility gap with their own people as to the election process". Certainly, a great deal of damage has already been done to Iran’s international standing and particularly to its relations with Western powers and especially the European Union (EU). Many foreign governments have severely criticised Iran for the brutality with which protesters have been dealt with, triggering several anti-Western tirades and warnings against foreign interference by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, President Ahmedinejad and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. Iran’s arrest of eight Iranian-national U.K. embassy staff in Tehran has raised particular concern and rebuke from the EU, even as four of the eight were released yesterday. Furthermore, in a sign that Iran will remain high on the international agenda for some time to come, the G8 nations (the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, Canada, and Russia) have said that a summit to be held next week (8—10 July) will tackle Iran as a focal topic. Silvio Berlusconi, the prime minister of Italy, which hosts the summit this time around said yesterday according to AFP that the meeting would bring up the possibility of further sanctions against Iran. Outlook and Implications Arguably, the Guardian Council’s verdict was a mere formality. The council’s partial admittance of irregularities last week was followed by a contradictory statement last week (26 June) by Kadkhodai: "We have had no fraud in any presidential election and this one was the cleanest election we have had. I can say with certainty that there was no fraud in this election." Generally the Guardian Council’s response to allegations of fraud lends credence to the opposition camp which has claimed that the Islamic Republic’s leadership, headed by Khamenei, is more concerned with upholding the façade of due procedure than investigating complaints. Furthermore, it could be seen as further proof that the elections were indeed tampered with and that Khamenei, who personally appoints half the members of the Guardian Council, was bent on securing Ahmedinejad’s re-election. Khamenei’s harshest critics allege that he was part of the alleged coup. In an attempt to redeem his public image, and perhaps begin to deal with the significant crisis of legitimacy which he faces President Ahmedinejad said yesterday he would launch a probe into the death of Neda Agah-Soltan, a young woman whose videotaped death has become a symbol of the brutality used by the Revolutionary Guards and the feared Basij militia. It is likely that Ahmedinejad will take further means in the short term to attempt to restore some credibility in his presidency and government while the security forces continue to ensure that no more than a few thousand protestors can gather in one place, thus projecting an image of relative government control over what has been called the greatest leadership crisis in the Islamic Republic’s 30-year history. In the longer term, the government may on the one hand attempt to compensate for the domestic upheaval by taking a more aggressive and defensive path, using nationalistic strategies and religious ideology to whip up nationalist support—particularly where its support is already strong among the poor, the religious, and in rural areas. It may deal strictly with liberal and moderate critics, cracking down on social and political freedoms. However, from fear of unintentionally creating a sustained political opposition, once political protests have been quelled, the government may emerge preferring a more conciliatory approach to attempt to compensate for the blow it has been dealt. In so doing the government would not only be acting out of shaken confidence, but fears of future protests and the possible emergence of sustained outspoken regime criticism; these may become important incentives for the government to drape itself in a more benevolent guise. In all likelihood the latter approach will have very limited success, as the show of strength shown by protesters cannot easily be swept under the rug. Furthermore, many political taboos have been broken already in Iran, particularly with regards to the hitherto strictly kept reverence for the Supreme Leader. Indeed, Khamenei too will emerge out of this crisis a weakened leader whose legitimacy for the first time has been placed in question by opposition leaders, protesters, and regime critics from within the regime. |
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