U.S. President's First Asia Tour Reflects Region's Growing Importance

This week, U.S. president Barack Obama makes his first visit to Asia since coming to office, leaving behind a slew of simmering domestic issues such as healthcare reform, rising unemployment, and strategy in Afghanistan. The visit is intended to signify an important departure from the last administration of President George W. Bush, indicating that Obama will take a closer interest in the region, recognising its economic and diplomatic importance to the United States. It was widely felt that Bush neglected broader Asian relations while he focused squarely on combating terrorism. During his nine-day trip, Obama will visit Japan, Singapore, China, and South Korea, taking in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit and the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit on the way. Obama will engage in discussions on a wide gamut of topics ranging from economic recovery to climate change and non-proliferation. Climate change will be a particular preoccupation given the need to build momentum ahead of December's Copenhagen summit on the issue. As in other regions of the world, Obama has created a great deal of excitement in Asia and he will be expected to produce his trademark rhetorical tours-de-force.

Japan: Alliance Faces Uncertainty

Japan has long formed the cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy in the region, and as such is the natural starting point for Obama's tour. When the country's Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) ascended to power in September, putting an end to five decades of one-party domination, concerns surfaced in Washington that the new government would herald greater instability for the alliance. Japan's new prime minister, Yukio Hatoyama, has called for a more "equal relationship" with the United States, pledging to take a more assertive stance and place greater focus on intra-Asian interaction. As part of his effort to take a less knee-jerk approach to American-led military efforts, Hatoyama has said that Tokyo will discontinue its refuelling of American ships for the war effort in Afghanistan next year. His government has also announced that it wants to review a 2006 agreement to relocate the U.S. Futenma airbase in Okinawa to a less crowded part of the island, and to transfer thousands of marines to Guam. In the wake of these announcements, Obama's challenge will be to guide the alliance through the difficult transition period and establish strong personal relations with the Hatoyama cabinet. On the Futenma issue, there is unlikely to be any real progress, as the Japanese government continues to draw up its own policy. Indeed, overall, there is unlikely to be any major re-structuring of the relationship. Instead, President Obama is more likely to come out with a series of reassuring statements to Tokyo, emphasising continuing U.S. commitment to the country while it continues to remain the centre-piece of U.S. foreign policy in the region.

Singapore: Economic Recovery Dominates Agenda

Over the weekend, Obama will attend the Eleventh Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, as well as the first-ever U.S.-ASEAN summit held in Singapore. During the summit, the 21-member forum will primarily discuss global economic recovery, environmental issues, and free trade. Creeping protectionism is a key concern for Asian economies, and is likely to dominate the meeting. Here, Obama is expected to reaffirm the United States' commitment to free trade and open markets, and will presumably distinguish recent U.S.-initiated trade challenges from protectionism. There will also be calls for a successful conclusion to the Doha round of multilateral free-trade negotiations aimed at lowering trade barriers and tariffs around the world. The talks have been stalled since July 2008, but APEC leaders are expected to once again state their intent to draw up a final package in early 2010. With reference to environmental issues, the Asia-Pacific leaders, including Obama, are likely to call for extensive cuts to greenhouse-gas emissions and a sustainable growth agenda that will enhance energy efficiency and sustainable forest management. The big question ahead of next month's Copenhagen Climate Change Summit is whether these admirable words will be matched by binding commitments. The U.S. President will no doubt face demands for more economic assistance from developing countries to help them to adapt to the impact of climate change. Although the APEC agenda in Singapore is comprehensive, including all the big questions from trade to environment, the concrete results are likely to be limited. APEC represents 54% of the global economy and includes the United States, Japan and China, but it is a consultative forum for trade and investment liberalisation, rather than a driving force behind such moves. After APEC, Obama will attend the inaugural U.S.-ASEAN summit, scheduled for Sunday (15 November). Here, Obama is to meet all ten ASEAN leaders, including the Myanmar junta's leader, Prime Minister Thein Sein. While private talks with Obama and Thein Sein are unlikely, their encounter will have strong symbolic significance, being the first such high-level meeting in 43 years. Obama's willingness to talk to "rogue" leaders distinguishes him from his predecessor. In addition to the multilateral meetings in Singapore, Obama will hold bilateral talks with the city state's President Lee Hsien Loong, Russian president Dmitri Medvedev, and Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

China: Collaborating with a Rising Regional Power

President Obama will spend the longest leg of his tour in China, where talks will be held on topics ranging from climate change, exchange-rate policy, to North Korea's nuclear weapons programme and human rights. Although China comes third on Obama's itinerary, the length of his visit indicates the importance that the Washington administration attaches to China as a rising global power. Improving military ties with China will be high on Obama's agenda in Beijing, as he pushes for improved communication to defuse tension over U.S. surveillance activities and China's ambitions in space technology. The President is also likely to push China to make further contributions on three big items of mutual interest: countering the economic slump, climate change, and geopolitical stability (in relation primarily to North Korea and Afghanistan). China will be looking for reassurance that the recent U.S.-led trade challenges are not part of a broader protectionist pattern (see China: 10 November 2009: China in the Firing Line over Trade—the Costs and Dangers). Obama will also need to cover his political bases in the United States, by tackling the contentious issues of human rights, particularly in Tibet and Xinjiang. Last year's unrest in Tibet and this year's violence in Xinjiang are likely to be mentioned, although there will be less finger-pointing than has been the case under previous Democratic and Republican administrations in the United States.

South Korea: Reaffirming Ties with a Key Ally

Although last on his journey, Obama's brief stop in South Korea nevertheless reinforces the United States' commitment to the alliance. In Seoul, Obama will reinforce the message that meaningful diplomacy with North Korea hinges on the strength of deterrence, and therefore the U.S.-South Korea alliance. South Korean president Lee Myung-bak has worked to build strong relations with the United States, with the result that relations are closer than they have been for more than a decade. Last week, the Seoul government announced a new commitment of 3,000 troops and just under 200 civilians to be part of a provincial reconstruction team in Afghanistan. However, the Lee administration is hoping that its efforts will be recognised in the form of greater traction in a stalled free-trade agreement between the two countries. In reality, there is unlikely to be any real progress on this issue next week as Obama will not want to push for an agreement that could rile labour unions concerned over its negative impact on employment levels. With U.S. unemployment now at more than 10%, Obama will be hard pressed to make any headway on projects that attract criticism back home.

Outlook and Implications

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