Tensions Mount as Pro- and Contra-President Protests Resume in Venezuela

For and Against, Again

Venezuela saw on Saturday (23 January) another round of simultaneous, opposing demonstrations when supporters of President Chávez and the opposition took to the streets to commemorate the 52nd anniversary of the fall of the country’s last military government led by General Marcos Pérez Jiménez in 1958. Speaking before thousands of followers in western Caracas, President Hugo Chávez demanded "absolute loyalty" and called on supporters to help defend the government’s near-absolute control over the National Assembly in the upcoming legislative elections, scheduled for 26 September. On the other side of the city, thousands of supporters from different opposition groups marched from downtown Caracas to the eastern Petare, a former government stronghold that was taken by the opposition in 2008. Caracas mayor and opposition leader Antonio Ledezma pledged in his address that the disparate opposition would go united to the polls, after it had boycotted previous elections. Some 5,600 police and other officials were charged with guarding the conflicting marches. In contrast to similar demonstrations in the past, there were no violent incidents, press reports say.

Another Media Crackdown

The commemoration of the fall of the military dictatorship has also provided the pretext for yet another crackdown on privately owned opposition media. On Saturday, just before midnight, six cable television channels including Radio Caracas Televisión Internacional (RCTVI) were taken off air, after the government ordered cable and satellite providers to stop transmitting channels that had refused to broadcast a nationwide address by President Chávez earlier the same day. This came after the government had last week reclassified RCTVI and 23 other local cable channels as national, rather than international broadcasters. This obliges them to abide by a wide range of programming restrictions, including the obligation to broadcast government announcements and speeches by the president. Under new regulations of the contentious Law on Social Responsibility in Radio and Television (Resorte Law), a broadcaster is deemed domestic if domestically produced content accounts for at least 30% of its programmes and commercials. A recent review from the National Telecommunications Commission (Conatel), directed by close presidential collaborator Diosdado Cabello, concluded that a total of 98% of RCTVI content is of domestic origin, thus prompting its classification as a domestic broadcaster. RCTVI, which had been forced to re-invent itself as a cable station after the government refused in 2007 to renew its public broadcasting licence, has turned to the Supreme Court to protest against the measure. Alongside RCTVI, Ritmo Son, Momentum, América TV, American Network, and TV Chile have also been taken off air, the president of the Venezuelan Chamber for Subscription Television (Cavetesu), Mario Seijas, said yesterday. The new crackdown comes after the government in August shut down 32 radio stations and two television networks for allegedly failing to fulfill legal requirements (see Venezuela: 3 August 2009: Crackdown in Venezuela Sees 34 Broadcasters Banished from Airwaves).

Outlook and Implications

Saturday’s simultaneous demonstrations marked the unofficial beginning of political campaigning ahead of the September legislative elections. A sluggish economy, soaring inflation, a deteriorating public security environment, and unprecedented electricity and water shortages have forced the Chávez administration increasingly onto the defensive and splits within the government may widen. Over the weekend, there were rumours that Deputy President Ramón Carrizales has tendered his resignation, but there has been no official confirmation. New regulations facilitating the expropriation of businesses, rushed through the National Assembly last week, will lead to more economic uncertainty and are likely to further stifle much needed economic growth, frustrating investment decisions.

The woes of the government have bolstered the opposition, but given the president’s overwhelming executive powers, including his vast control over off-budget spending, and his near-absolute sway over the legislature, President Chávez is unlikely to surrender without a fight. Last week, he moved to re-assure poorer voters that the government will do everything it can to stop the erosion of their purchasing power, after a recent currency devaluation sparked fears of the a fresh spike in inflation (see Venezuela: 18 January 2010: Venezuelan President Orders Expropriation of French-Colombian Retail Chain). Together with the latest media clampdown, this leaves no doubt that the president will use his incumbency advantage to tighten the grip of the executive ahead of the legislative elections. Against this background, Venezuela is headed for a tumultuous run-up to the elections, during which political polarisation is expected to hit new heights.

Find out more about Same-day Analysis