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European Passenger Car Sales Rise 3.0% Y/Y in February, According to ACEA

16 Mar 10

The rate of growth in the European passenger car market is falling steadily, with sales in February up just 3.0% year-on-year; the low base of comparison and the legacy of the various incentive schemes are still having a supportive effect, but this is unlikely to be the case for much longer.

IHS Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

Passenger car sales in the European Union (EU) rose by 3.0% year-on-year (y/y) during February to 974,346 units, according to the latest data released by ACEA.

Implications

Although the market is continuing to register growth as a result of the low base of comparison and the legacy effects of the various incentive schemes introduced in 2009, it is more telling that the market in February was still well down on the 1 million or more units regularly seen during that month prior to the downturn.

Outlook

In line with many observers, IHS Global Insight is anticipating that sales in the EU will tumble during 2010 by around 11% y/y to 12.6 million units.

The European passenger car market's growth rate is starting to slip, according to data for February released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA). The trade association has released sales data for the European Union (EU) showing a rise of just 3.0% year-on-year (y/y) to 974,346 units, taking the year-to-date (YTD) total to 2.03 million units, up 7.9% y/y. Including European markets not covered by the EU, sales just exceeded the 1-million-unit market, posting a gain of 3.2% y/y, while sales in the YTD increased by 8.1% y/y to 2.09 million units.

In terms of individual market data, the various scrappage schemes introduced by individual governments have greatly influenced the performances of the different markets within Europe. This is illustrated by the performance of Europe's biggest market, Germany, which posted a substantial 29.8% y/y decline during February; it was the only major Western European country to register a decline, resulting from the exhaustion of the country's scrappage scheme fund. France, the United Kingdom, and Spain all witnessed double-digit percentage gains during the month as their own schemes continued in some form or another. On the other hand, Italy, which withdrew its scheme at the end of 2009, also continued to exhibit double-digit growth in February, although this was mainly due to the extremely low base of comparison and lingering effects from the scrappage scheme, with orders still being fulfilled. There were still some big variations in the Eastern European markets. The Czech Republic posted a 12.8% y/y rise, whereas the biggest market in the region, Poland, suffered a 19.2% y/y decline. However, worst hit in this region were the Romanian and Hungarian markets, which recorded declines of 63.0% y/y and 57.9% y/y, respectively.

European Passenger Car Sales by Country: February 2010

 

Feb 2010

Feb 2009

Y/Y %

YTD 2010

YTD 2009

Y/Y %

Austria

21,786

18,827

+15.7

42,668

37,819

+12.8

Belgium

47,584

45,904

+3.7

96,960

93,594

+3.6

Bulgaria

1,104

1,990

-44.5

2,106

3,898

-46.0

Czech Republic

11,080

9,823

+12.8

21,893

18,665

+17.3

Denmark

8,599

7,436

+15.6

19,271

15,237

+26.5

Estonia

415

794

-47.7

944

1,748

-46.0

Finland

7,589

7,186

+5.6

19,972

18,752

+6.5

France

180,535

152,720

+18.2

352,013

302,736

+16.3

Germany

194,846

277,740

-29.8

376,035

467,125

-19.5

Greece

13,727

15,592

-12.0

40,312

35,839

+12.5

Hungary

3,042

7,217

-57.9

5,810

13,294

-56.3

Ireland

12,306

8,883

+38.5

28,865

24,682

+16.9

Italy

200,560

166,320

+20.6

407,580

324,782

+25.5

Latvia

265

443

-40.2

531

937

-43.3

Lithuania

435

526

-17.3

874

1,270

-31.2

Luxemburg

4,081

4,165

-2.0

7,617

7,322

+4.0

Netherlands

37,786

33,936

+11.3

100,548

90,102

+11.6

Poland

24,384

30,194

-19.2

49,740

56,865

-12.5

Portugal

15,346

10,030

+53.0

29,905

19,025

+57.2

Romania

2,658

7,187

-63.0

4,792

21,002

-77.2

Slovakia

3,476

3,301

+5.3

6,393

6,208

+3.0

Slovenia

4,803

4,716

+1.8

9,853

9,288

+6.1

Spain

91,281

62,107

+47.0

161,411

121,492

+32.9

Sweden

17,972

14,603

+23.1

33,495

25,902

+29.3

United Kingdom

68,686

54,359

+26.4

214,165

166,446

+28.7

European Union (EU27)

974,346

945,999

+3.0

2,033,753

1,884,030

+7.9

Iceland

74

91

-19.0

162

217

-25.5

Norway

9,094

6,287

+44.6

18,791

11,640

+61.4

Switzerland

17,241

17,616

-2.1

35,979

35,447

+1.5

EFTA

26,409

23,994

+10.1

54,932

47,304

+16.1

EU27+EFTA

1,000,754

969,993

+3.2

2,088,684

1,931,334

+8.1

The strong declines now being seen in the German market pushed the Volkswagen (VW) Group into deficit during February as its sales slipped by 1.7% y/y. All of the automaker's brands recorded declines during the month, except for SEAT, which reported a gain by virtue of its largest market being Spain. Sales of other major European automakers were largely supported by the continuing effects of the scrappage schemes. Among them, French automakers the Renault Group and PSA Peugeot-Citroën saw increases of 30% y/y and 18.4% y/y, helped by the neighbouring Spanish market, where both companies have a strong presence, while the Fiat Group continued to capitalise on earlier incentives in Italy, lifting its overall sales in the region by 5.1% y/y. However, U.S.-based automakers Ford and General Motors (GM) had contrasting months, with the former seeing a gain of 5.0% y/y and the latter slipping by 7.4% y/y.

European Passenger Car Sales by OEM: February 2010

 

Feb 2010

Feb 2009

Y/Y %

YTD 2010

YTD 2009

Y/Y %

All Brands**

1,000,754

969,993

+3.2

2,088,684

1,931,334

+8.1

VW Group

207,969

211,558

-1.7

431,648

412,050

+4.8

Volkswagen

110,878

112,391

-1.3

233,446

218,948

+6.6

Audi

40,926

43,618

-6.2

87,027

90,036

-3.3

Seat

23,241

21,215

+9.5

44,908

43,017

+4.4

Skoda

32,833

34,229

-4.1

66,013

59,797

+10.4

Others

91

105

-13.3

254

252

+0.8

PSA Group

149,128

125,914

+18.4

299,796

254,642

+17.7

Peugeot

79,740

67,453

+18.2

161,156

135,576

+18.9

Citroen

69,388

58,461

+18.7

138,640

119,066

+16.4

Renault Group

109,663

84,356

+30.0

225,226

156,651

+43.8

Renault

91,913

72,241

+27.2

190,235

134,370

+41.6

Dacia

17,750

12,115

+46.5

34,991

22,281

+57.0

Ford Group

99,801

95,024

+5.0

210,973

199,679

+5.7

Ford

83,702

81,624

+2.5

178,139

170,930

+4.2

Volvo

16,099

13,400

+20.1

32,834

28,749

+14.2

Fiat Group

91,944

87,500

+5.1

192,335

171,159

+12.4

Fiat

73,201

70,988

+3.1

154,218

138,174

+11.6

Lancia

10,337

8,723

+18.5

20,480

16,631

+23.1

Alfa Romeo

8,115

7,451

+8.9

16,913

15,451

+9.5

Others

291

338

-13.9

724

903

-19.8

GM Group

79,745

86,116

-7.4

161,868

166,456

-2.8

Opel/Vauxhall

66,478

70,462

-5.7

135,192

136,575

-1.0

Chevrolet

12,049

13,223

-8.9

24,325

24,693

-1.5

Saab

1,067

2,221

-52.0

1,905

4,810

-60.4

GM (US)

151

210

-28.1

446

378

+18.0

Toyota Group

44,462

55,463

-19.8

100,584

107,380

-6.3

Toyota

43,531

54,512

-20.1

97,767

104,974

-6.9

Lexus

931

951

-2.1

2,817

2,406

+17.1

BMW Group

45,632

42,761

+6.7

93,819

88,080

+6.5

BMW

38,259

35,942

+6.4

77,562

74,763

+3.7

Mini

7,373

6,819

+8.1

16,257

13,317

+22.1

Daimler

41,413

42,478

-2.5

82,548

90,864

-9.2

Mercedes

35,913

35,476

+1.2

71,872

76,619

-6.2

Smart

5,500

7,002

-21.5

10,676

14,245

-25.1

Nissan

27,877

21,113

+32.0

62,083

46,854

+32.5

Hyundai

26,114

25,128

+3.9

54,118

43,643

+24.0

Kia

18,042

15,367

+17.4

 
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