| Global Insight Perspective | | | | Significance | Mikati is seen as a compromise candidate; he has close business ties with the Syrian administration, yet is also viewed as a convenient choice by the opposition, who have their sights firmly set on this year's elections. | | Implications | Mikati is determined not to repeat the mistakes of his predecessor, urging the opposition to re-enter the parliamentary process and co-ordinate efforts, with a view to restoring a sense of political normalcy and security. Significantly, he has also backed opposition calls for the dismissal of Lebanon's security chiefs, who are held accountable for the assassination of Hariri. | | Outlook | The challenges that will confront Mikati are substantial; with parliamentary elections, a UN investigation into Hariri's killing, and the Syrian withdrawal all taking place under his watch, his political skills and resolve are likely to be tested to the full. These events are set to occur against the backdrop of an enormous public debt burden, further compounding the difficulties of Mikati's mission. |
Najib Mikati is, as was the deceased Hariri, a powerful Lebanese business personality. He served as minister for transport and public works between 1998 and 2003 (see Lebanon: 15 February 2005: Assassination of Former Lebanese PM Rekindles Scenes and Fears of Devastating Civil War). Educated at Harvard University (US), Mikati co-founded the telecoms company Investcom Holding, which has close ties with the Syrian administration of Bashar al-Asad. Also like Hariri, Mikati is not a member of one of the leading Lebanese political dynasties, and as such is not constrained by the political baggage that compromised his predecessor Omer Karameh, who is from one of the leading Sunni political families in the Tripoli region. Following his narrow selection by pro-Syrian legislators, Mikati, speaking to the Voice of Lebanon radio station, stated: 'This is a period for establishing a new Lebanon...Lebanon cannot be ruled except with moderation. The line I have taken is that I am not blindly with the loyalists and not blindly with the opposition.' In a further effort to appease the opposition camp, Mikati endorsed calls for the dismissal of key Lebanese security officials - one of the opposition's principal demands. He also made it explicitly clear that the new government was committed to providing all available support and assistance to the UN investigative committee, to ensure that those responsible for Hariri's assassination were held to account. The opposition response to the choice of Mikati as prime minister-designate has been encouraging, with Druze leader Walid Jumblatt urging opposition figures to join the parliamentary process, with the goal of ensuring that elections proceed on schedule. The opposition has made it apparent that they will participate in consultations on the formation of the new cabinet, in a move that may signal an end to the political limbo that has paralysed Lebanon for over two months. The decision of MP Bahiya Hariri (the sister of the deceased Hariri) to meet with pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud - the first meeting between the two - has bolstered Mikati's prospects of forming a cabinet and preparing Lebanon for the forthcoming parliamentary elections. From Here to the Elections The Lebanese constitution stipulates that elections are called a month before polling day; with Lebanon lacking a cabinet, and a motion to re-draw electoral boundaries still in the pipeline, such a timeframe will prove a daunting one to meet. Only one week is left if the government is to organise a 31 May election. (see Lebanon: 12 April 2005: Failure to Form New Lebanese Government Quashes May Election Prospects). However, the opposition insist that efforts must be doubled to ensure that elections are held at the earliest possible date, if not on 31 May. Their calls are being echoed by the international community, with US President George W. Bush reiterating his demand for a comprehensive Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon in accordance with UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1559. According to AFP, Bush made the following uncompromising comment: 'When I say 'get out of Lebanon', I mean out of Lebanon with all your troops and all your security services and all the people trying to influence that government. It is in the world's interest that Lebanon be allowed to have free elections, because a free society will help spread the peace.' Mikati's close personal and business ties with the Syrian leadership indicate that the prime minister-designate is unlikely to sever Lebanon's long-established political, economic and security links with Syria; the person who is to address this issue will be determined after the elections. Outlook and Implications Mikati faces a grave challenge. It would not be an exaggeration to state that Lebanon's political stability and future security is at stake. His mission is to steer Lebanon at the most sensitive juncture in its post-civil war history, and provide national leadership, during what promises to be a turbulent transition from Syrian tutelage to independent elections. International attentions remain focused on Lebanon, with the country being pinpointed as another test case for the future of democratic reform in the Middle East. This focus raises the bar an extra notch, and compounds the task of restoring political order and administering much-needed economic reforms. With Lebanon fast approaching a number of political crossroads, Mikati is tasked with performing a fine balancing act, with the upcoming elections acting as a referendum on Lebanon's future political and national course. | |
