| Global Insight Perspective | | | | Significance | Uri swept to power in the 2004 general elections, fuelled in large measure by public anger over the Grand National Party's (GNP's) impeachment of President Roh. Since that time, opinion polls have reflected steadily growing public dissatisfaction with the ruling party, but few would have predicted such a rout. | | Implications | The loss of the parliamentary majority may signal the onset of legislative gridlock, as Uri lawmakers will be forced to compromise and bargain with rival legislators, who have thus far shown little inclination to 'play nice' with the ruling party. | | Outlook | The main consequence of this by-election will have been to re-energise the opposition and provide a much-needed shot in the arm to GNP leader Park Geun-hye, who now looks like she could be the front-running party candidate for the presidency come 2007. | There Goes the Majority | South Korean Parliament (as of 2 May 2005) | | Party | Seats | | Uri Party | 146 | | Grand National Party (GNP) | 125 | | Democratic Labour Party (DLP) | 10 | | Millennium Democratic Party (MDP) | 9 | | United Liberal Democrats (ULD) | 3 | | Others | 6 | | Total | 299 | South Korea's ruling Uri Party suffered a major setback over the weekend (31 April/1 May 2005), as its candidates failed to win a single electoral position in by-elections for six parliamentary seats, seven mayoral posts and 10 seats on city councils. The opposition Grand National Party (GNP) claimed the lion's share of the seats up for grabs, gaining five of the six parliamentary posts, five mayoral races and eight city council seats. In a vivid illustration of its failure, Uri's candidate lost out to an independent in the Yeongi-Gongju district, Uri's proposed site for the country's new administrative capital (see South Korea: 11 August 2004: Government Confirms New South Korean Capital Site in Yeongi-Gongju). Unsurprisingly, the unmitigated electoral disaster resulted in some Uri stalwarts calling for freshly-elected party chairman Moon Hee-sang to take responsibility for the party's failure and step down from his post, but an emergency standing committee meeting decided he should not step down so soon after taking office. He was only voted in less than a month ago and the party has already endured too much destabilising churn at the top (see South Korea: 4 April 2005: Ruling Party in South Korea Votes for Moderation and Pragmatism with Election of New Chairman). What a Difference a Year Makes At this time in 2004, the Uri Party was celebrating its stunning success in the 15 April 2004 general elections, which resulted in it coming from nowhere to claim a parliamentary majority (see South Korea: 16 April 2004: Election 2004: Uri Party Secures Overall Majority, Opening New Chapter in South Korean Politics). It was looking forward to seeing the country's constitutional court overturn the GNP-backed effort to impeach President Roh Moo-hyun and have a reformist president and legislature in power for the first time in modern South Korean history. However, after that brief moment of euphoria, Uri's fortunes went into swift decline. Despite winning plaudits for bringing about a generation shift and impressive political reform, Uri came under fire for exploiting its parliamentary majority to push ahead with a deeply divisive and unpopular legislative agenda. Among the most inflammatory moves have been proposals to revise the country's National Security Law, move the capital out of Seoul and launch a commission to investigate Koreans who collaborated with the Japanese during the period of colonial rule (see South Korea: 21 October 2004: Courts Block Relocation of South Korean Capital, as Administration Faces Parliamentary Opposition and 13 October 2004: Opposition Warns South Korean Ruling Party Against Scrapping Anti-Communist Security Law). The spell of turmoil badly damaged the party's public standing, with a November 2004 survey showing its popularity plunging to 23%. This mirrored a slump in support for President Roh Moo-hyun, whose approval ratings fell to just 22% - their lowest level since he took office in December 2002. The party's apparent inability to retain its leaders further exacerbated the sense of free-fall, with Moon Hee-sang becoming the party's fifth leader since it was formed in September 2003, following the loss of a series of key figures over the past 12 months: - Chung Dong-young (see South Korea: 17 May 2004: Uri Party Leader Steps Down Ahead of Possible Cabinet Assignment in South Korea);
- Shin Ki-nam (see South Korea: 19 August 2004: Leader of South Korean Uri Party Resigns Over Father's Role as Japanese Collaborator); and
- Lee Bu-young (see South Korea: 6 January 2005: Uri Party Names New Provisional Leader, as South Korean President Faces Criticism Over Cabinet Reshuffle).
Outlook and Implications  The main consequence of the weekend's by-elections is that Uri will no longer be able to exploit its majority to push bills through the legislature. In practice, this signals tough times for its efforts to repeal the anti-communist National Security Law, as well as moves to investigate individuals whose families have been accused of collaborating with the Japanese government during Korea's colonisation. While Uri was hoping to settle the latter issue before the end of the April 2005 parliamentary session (which concludes on Thursday 5 May 2005), there is little indication that the GNP will be in any mood to accommodate, especially in light of its strong electoral showing.
Similarly, Uri efforts to relocate the capital to the city of Yeongi-Gongju look likely to fall flat, as the two main parties have yet to agree to any specifics on the planned move. Even the starting premise of when construction should begin is controversial - Uri wants to start in 2007, while the GNP is pushing for a 2008 start date that would follow the next round of presidential and legislative elections. Now, with a stronger footing in parliament, the GNP may intensify its efforts to relocate fewer government offices, dealing a setback to one of the Roh government's main domestic policy initiatives. Some believe that Uri should revitalise its approach by recalling cabinet officials, like Unification Minister Chung Dong-young and Health and Welfare Minister Kim Geun-tae, to the party to reorganise its ranks, but neither has yet indicated any intention of doing so. Regardless of how Uri decides to go about coping with this humiliating setback, one asset it definitely does not have is time to sort out its house. With another round of by-elections looming in October 2005, a central priority will be for Uri to sort out its strategic operations and rebuild its crumbling public support. Some fear that it is already too late - an unnamed party member told the Korea Herald newspaper, 'I am beginning to think that our party has no hope in the local elections next year, let alone the coming presidential and the general elections.' Global Insight views the situation in less absolutist terms and believes that this by-election defeat will serve as a much-needed reality check for the Uri Party, who may have been overly giddy with power over the past year. While the prospects look bleak for now, the party needs to demonstrate that it can adjust to its loss of majority status and build legislative coalitions responsibly, while at the same time maintaining support for its core reform agenda.
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