| Global Insight Perspective | | | | Significance | Though the 49-year-old former teacher had been mentioned as one of Zuma's possible successors, her appointment - which makes her the highest-ranking woman in South Africa's modern political history - has still come as a surprise. | | Implications | Mbeki's choice of Mlambo-Ngcuka has been broadly welcomed, with her gender and championing of the government's black economic empowerment (BEE) programme playing particularly well with critics. | | Outlook | With the post of the deputy presidency widely considered to be a stepping stone to the presidency, Mlambo-Ngcuka is now seen as the strong favourite to succeed Mbeki as president in 2009. However, it is not certain whether or not the new deputy president harbours such ambitions, which would make her the country's first female president. | Surprise Choice Just a week after firing his former deputy and potential successor, Jacob Zuma, in disgrace, President Thabo Mbeki made a surprise choice yesterday (22 June 2005) in naming Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka as his new number two, making her the most important woman in South African politics and perhaps in the country's modern history. 'We thought that this gave us an opportunity to further strengthen the participation of women in the executive. That's part of what influenced the decision that we took,' Mbeki said as he revealed his choice. A former teacher, Mlambo-Ngcuka has been a member of parliament since the end of Apartheid rule in 1994, serving and chairing various parliamentary select committees. She first joined the cabinet back in 1996 as the deputy trade and industry minister in former president Nelson Mandela's government, a role she filled until 1999. She was then promoted to full minister in President Mbeki's first cabinet following his succession of Mandela as head of state in June 1999, taking over the key minerals and energy portfolio. Despite her vast experience, at 49 Mlambo-Ngcuka is still the youngest member of cabinet, which, allied to her 'handicap' of gender in what is still essentially a predominantly male-dominated society, makes her ascendancy to effectively the second most powerful political position in South Africa even more surprising. Coincidence or Conspiracy? In an ironic twist, Mlambo-Ngcuka is married to the country's former chief prosecutor, Bulelani Ngcuka, whose attempt to prosecute Jacob Zuma for his allegedly corrupt involvement in the country's multi-billion dollar arms-procurement programme back in 2003 began the former deputy president's downfall. Bulelani Ngcuka claimed at the time that although there was prima facie evidence of corruption by then deputy president Zuma, there was not sufficient to prosecute him successfully (see South Africa: 26 August 2003: SA Deputy President Escapes Corruption Charges, Suspicion Remains). However, Zuma's escape turned out to be temporary, as he now awaits criminal charges following his dismissal last week (see South Africa: 15 June 2005: South African President Dismisses Graft-Tainted Deputy, Reopens Succession Debate and 21 June 2005: South Africa's Former Deputy President to Face Corruption Charges). This all stems from the conviction on graft charges of his former financial adviser, Schabir Shaik, earlier this month, including the payment of some 1.3 million rand (US$200,000) to Zuma in order to secure lucrative business deals and for arranging a R500,000 annual bribe payment from a French arms company to buy protection during a government probe into the controversial arms-procurement programme (see South Africa: 3 June 2005: SA Deputy President Under the Spotlight as Former Adviser Convicted of Fraud). Following Mlambo-Ngcuka's promotion to the post of deputy president, Mbeki has named Deputy Trade and Industry Minister Lindiwe Hendricks as her successor to the minerals and energy portfolio. Outlook and Implications The appointment of Mlambo-Ngcuka once again demonstrates that Mbeki is not afraid of making tough decisions. As if sacking his friend, Zuma, who remains immensely popular among the rank and file of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party and its tripartite partners, the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Confederation of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), despite his allegedly corrupt activities - was not tough enough, the appointment of Mlambo-Ngcuka is also seen as courageous. Mbeki could easily have chosen more fancied candidates, such as ANC chairman and Defence Minister Mosiuoa Lekota, Foreign Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma (Zuma's former wife) and Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, or outsiders such as Home Affairs Minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula and leading businessmen Cyril Ramaphosa, Saki Macozoma and Tokyo Sexwale. But the President chose Mlambo-Ngcuka despite her gender and marriage to Bulelani Ngcuka - the man whose damning pronouncement of Zuma's allegedly corrupt activities has signalled the beginning of the end of his political career. The move is likely to alienate Mbeki further in certain sections of the ANC and its partners, who see Zuma's dismissal and Mlambo-Ngcuka's subsequent appointment as a conspiracy hatched by those who want to prevent their man from taking over from Mbeki. With the post of the deputy presidency widely considered a stepping stone to the presidency, Mlambo-Ngcuka - who is an ethnic Zulu, like Zuma - is now seen as the strong favourite to succeed Mbeki as president in 2009. However, it is not certain whether or not the new deputy president harbours such ambitions, which will make her the country's first female president.
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